2022 Asia Economic Outlook. 1. A Self-sustaining Cycle Is Unfolding. ① People see Asia’s recovery gaining strength and building breadth as more economies join the upswing. ② Underpinning this recovery are the best productivity dynamics since 2007, with the strong rebound in private capex making a compelling case for a self-sustaining recovery. 2. Gaining strength. ① Asia has had a good recovery so far. ② A sharp liftoff in exports and capex – both of which have recovered faster than in the previous three cycles – is the key reason for relatively strong growth. ③ People forecast Asia’s GDP growth to stay strong in 2022 at 5.4%, which is 40bps above consensus. 3. Building breadth. ① People expect consumption, the laggard so far, to join in the recovery, unlocked by high vaccination rates. ② Nine out of 12 Asian economies will have achieved full vaccination rates of 80% or more in three months' time. ③ Policymakers around the region have also initiated plans to live with Covid as an endemic issue and are starting to gradually ease Covid-related restrictions. 4. Accelerating momentum. ① North Asia led the recovery and should sustain relatively strong rates of growth in 2022, In China, People see a lift in growth from 1Q22, supported by policy easing, accelerated infrastructure spending, and a reset of quotas on mortgage loans and energy intensity targets. ② In North Asia economies like Japan, Korea and Taiwan, growth momentum will likely be sustained by still robust exports and capex growth, as well as faster growth in consumption. ③ The pace of growth in India and ASEAN – which had been the laggards – is catching up. ④ Reopening boosts not just demand but supply as well, lifting production levels and allowing these economies to participate in the global trade boom. 5. Reviving productivity. Asia’s productivity dynamic is improving after a decade of weakness.